Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.007271 0.008197 0.009210 0.010403 0.011773 0.013299 0.015133
2024-10-06 0.005724 0.006958 0.008426 0.010312 0.012685 0.015592 0.019450
2024-10-13 0.005144 0.006577 0.008383 0.010847 0.014155 0.018487 0.024666
2024-10-20 0.004398 0.005843 0.007746 0.010465 0.014305 0.019608 0.027624
2024-10-27 0.003869 0.005310 0.007280 0.010210 0.014531 0.020785 0.030738
2024-11-03 0.003533 0.004995 0.007060 0.010246 0.015140 0.022537 0.034894
2024-11-10 0.003362 0.004887 0.007112 0.010668 0.016348 0.025307 0.041007
2024-11-17 0.003069 0.004567 0.006813 0.010510 0.016615 0.026606 0.044856
2024-11-24 0.002864 0.004358 0.006656 0.010549 0.017190 0.028451 0.049884
2024-12-01 0.002631 0.004082 0.006365 0.010334 0.017300 0.029499 0.053596
2024-12-08 0.002511 0.003975 0.006334 0.010543 0.018159 0.031953 0.060294
2024-12-15 0.002360 0.003804 0.006180 0.010522 0.018594 0.033672 0.065794
2024-12-22 0.002136 0.003500 0.005787 0.010056 0.018195 0.033833 0.068285
2024-12-29 0.001998 0.003332 0.005615 0.009979 0.018529 0.035477 0.074234
2025-01-05 0.001966 0.003343 0.005756 0.010494 0.020070 0.039747 0.086733
2025-01-12 0.001807 0.003118 0.005453 0.010126 0.019792 0.040181 0.090459
2025-01-19 0.001681 0.002940 0.005223 0.009880 0.019733 0.041076 0.095439
2025-01-26 0.001602 0.002845 0.005138 0.009915 0.020273 0.043363 0.104297
2025-02-02 0.001575 0.002844 0.005232 0.010322 0.021667 0.047790 0.119564
2025-02-09 0.001485 0.002716 0.005067 0.010170 0.021790 0.049239 0.127097
2025-02-16 0.001423 0.002637 0.004994 0.010207 0.022352 0.051827 0.138336
2025-02-23 0.001340 0.002511 0.004817 0.010000 0.022311 0.052892 0.145349
2025-03-02 0.001304 0.002477 0.004824 0.010202 0.023278 0.056686 0.161385